https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2...ce-performance/


המאמר לא מתרשם מדור הטילים החדש של האיראנים. הוא מתמקד בחוסר הדיוק הכללי, אך מנגד מתעלם מכך שהיו פגיעות מאוד מדויקות ויש להם דור של טילים מדויקים ועם יכולת הבקעה טובה. כמו כן גם טילים בלתי מדויקים בכמות מספקת על מרכזי הערים הם איום מהותי. בפרט ביחס לעיר כמו תל אביב שבה כ60 גרודי שחקים.
להלן הסיכום שלו בהקשר זה.
Finally, a note on missile types. No doubt the observant among you have noticed I have not discussed variation in Iranian missile types being a possible explanation for the variations in accuracy. Many of the more inaccurate hits we are seeing may be simply older missiles, while all the intercepted missiles that would have hit are more modern, accurate systems. This is definitely possible, but beyond our ability to analyze due to the paucity of data. I would, however, challenge some of the assumptions that go into the argument. Iran has been developing and producing a multitude of long-range missile systems designed, in some way, to complicate Israeli missile defense efforts. This includes not simply missiles that can maneuver in during their descent with fins but missiles that have powered warheads which can theoretically maneuver during the midcourse as the missile is traveling through space. Some claim that these missiles are more accurate, and while this is likely true of any missile equipped with fins, most Iranian missiles now have some sort of capability to maneuver in the terminal phase. But beyond that, we don’t actually know if something like the Fattah is magnitudes of order more accurate than something like an Emad. If the guidance systems inside the missiles are the same and still not up for the job of keeping accurate track of the missile’s position throughout flight and during maneuvers, the missile will still miss. I have seen no evidence that newer missiles like the Fattah are using much more advanced guidance systems, or that Iran can even produce extremely advanced guidance systems necessary to build a force of missiles with very high penetration and accuracy characteristics.


אני לא משוכנע שהוא צודק ובכל מקרה אל מול היקף הנזק הדיוק מספק ורלוונטי ביחס למטרות כמו מכון וייצמן בז"ן וגם סורוקה.