20-07-2025, 07:34
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חבר מתאריך: 25.08.03
הודעות: 4,815
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המשמעויות המרחיקות לכת של הכטב"מ החדש על המאזן הצבאי
בתגובה להודעה מספר 1 שנכתבה על ידי channb שמתחילה ב "מערכות נשק ישראליות שלא פורסמו רשמית ושיש אינדיקציה שנעשה בהם שימוש"
שאלתי גם את ג'מיני וגם את גי' פי טי אודות המשמעות של צי של 100 כלי טיס בלתי מאוישים חמקניים עם יכולת תקיפה מרחוק ואויר אויר לפחות ברמה מוגבלת - ביחס למאזן הצבאי האזורי להלן אחת התשובות.
התשובות מתייחסות ליכולת מוערכת של הכלי לפי פירסומים שונים שנותחו על ידי הבינה המלאכותית. שתי המודלים הציגו תשובות די זהות וכל אחד מוזמן לבחון בעצמו.
Here's why this scaling would be so impactful:
- Amplified Asymmetric Advantage: Israel already possesses a significant qualitative military edge over most of its immediate neighbors, particularly in air power, intelligence, and precision strike capabilities.1 Adding 100 stealth, long-range, armed drones would exponentially magnify this asymmetry. It's not just more numbers; it's a new class of capability.
- Overmatch in Key Areas:
- Air Defense Suppression: A large fleet of stealth drones could severely degrade or neutralize enemy air defense systems, creating unparalleled freedom of action for Israeli air assets (manned or unmanned).
- Persistent ISR: Constant, undetected surveillance over vast areas would provide an intelligence picture far beyond what any other regional actor could achieve, enabling pre-emptive strikes or highly precise targeting.
- Multi-Domain Impact: These drones would effectively integrate air, intelligence, and even potentially cyber warfare (through their advanced systems and data links) into a single, highly effective platform.
- Shift in Deterrence Dynamics:
- Credible Threat of Overwhelming Force: The ability to launch numerous precision strikes deep within hostile territory, with minimal risk to personnel, would create a level of deterrence that few, if any, regional adversaries could effectively counter.
- Reduced Escalation Ladder: While still a serious act of war, drone strikes can sometimes be perceived as having a lower escalation threshold than manned aircraft missions, potentially offering Israel more flexibility in response options.
- Forced Response by Adversaries:
- Intensified Arms Race: Other regional powers, especially Iran and its proxies, would be compelled to invest heavily in counter-drone technologies, advanced air defenses, and possibly their own stealth drone programs, further fueling an already volatile arms race. This could lead to a less stable, more militarized region.
- Increased Vulnerability: Countries without comparable capabilities would find their strategic assets (military bases, critical infrastructure, leadership) significantly more vulnerable to attack.
- Strategic Reach and Deniability: The long-range nature of such drones would extend Israel's operational reach far beyond its immediate borders, allowing it to project power and conduct operations deep into enemy territory. The covert nature of the RA-01 also offers a degree of deniability, though major strikes would likely be attributed.
While Israel already holds a strong military position in the region, the deployment of 100 advanced stealth drones within a 5-year timeframe would represent a game-changer. It would not just maintain Israel's qualitative edge but would likely extend it to a degree that would compel a fundamental recalculation of military strategies by all actors in the Middle East.
נערך לאחרונה ע"י channb בתאריך 20-07-2025 בשעה 07:37.
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