23-05-2014, 21:06
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חבר מתאריך: 13.11.04
הודעות: 16,823
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LEVERAGING UK CARRIER CAPABILITY
https://www.rusi.org/downloads/asse..._Capability.pdf
Displacing 65,000 tons, the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers cannot be directly compared to the smaller US Wasp and America classes (at 45,000 tons) or the Nimitz and Ford classes (at 100,000 tons) used by the US Marines and US Navy, respectively. Consequently, there is little precedent for how these British ships might function and thus there is a rare opportunity to develop a new strategic maritime capability. This opportunity will only be harnessed if convention and prejudice are set aside and future technological possibilities are recognised.
The Queen Elizabeth class is over three times the size of the Invincible class, with a crew of up to 1,600, a range of 8,000 nautical miles (without re-fuelling), as well as the ability to move around 500 miles a day and operate a mix of up to forty air platforms. The carrier’s agility and independence means it is likely to be one of the first assets deployed to any hotspot around the globe.
Additionally, whilst carriers can be targeted by various weapons systems, a sense of proportion is needed. A carrier operating 100 miles from the coast can increase its ‘area of uncertainty’ from its point of origin by 400 square miles in the first hour, by 1,600 square miles in the second hour, 3,600 square miles in the third hour and so on until the area of uncertainty is over 60,000 square miles by the end of a twelve-hour period. This area, even if the carrier were at its furthest point from origin, is still only 300 miles from the coast and thus, with air refuelling, is within useful striking range of land targets
while all but the most advanced long-range weapons (such as the Chinese DF-21 missile) are negated. Even the DF-21 requires accurate targeting data that assumes a high level of technological resilience for satellite or survivability and tracking capabilities for submarines. In comparison, the expeditionary land airfield – a fixed base – is highly susceptible to cheap and accurate saturation attacks by simple, armed UAS that could disrupt or deny
air operations from such fixed sites
The Costs of Running a Second Carrier
The fact that the annual running cost of RAF Marham is £144 million) places the bill for a second carrier into perspective. Yet few decisions are as strategically significant as that regarding the Queen Elizabeth-class carrier and many parliamentarians would support the annual £65 million bill were they aware of the arguments such as the likely long-term savings gained via a guarantee of avoiding another land-based air campaign, as the next chapter shows. For the same effect, land-based air support (such as that required for Operation Ellamy) is around six times more expensive than carrier-based air power. These are compelling reasons of value for the government to review the arguments in favour of operating a second carrier
Land-Air versus Marine-Air Sorties
Although Tornado missions flown from RAF Marham were hailed as a success, there are lessons to be learnt from the detail of how these tasks were executed in comparison with US carrier-based operations:
· For every four Tornados tasked to Libyan airspace, a further two were required to be airborne in order to replace one or more of the four Tornados in case they became unserviceable after taking off (אותו יחס אצלנו לגבי אירן?)
· The cost per flying hour for the Tornado is £32,000, meaning that the total cost per flying mission of thirty hours (four aircraft flying for seven hours, with two additional flying for one) was at least £960,000. This does not include the flight of the VC-10 tanker for over eight hours in support of the missions, or the cost of the ordnance expended
· As a comparison, US Marine Corps AV-8B missions from the USS Kearsage, located around 50 miles from the Libyan coast, took about 90 minutes per tasking without a requirement for mid-air refuelling. A question for the government, following its experience in Libya, is at what distance from RAF Marham does a Tornado deployment become an overtly expensive and unviable option? Libya was a 3,000-mile round trip. Tornados have had eight catastrophic engine failures in recent years, one resulting in a fatality, and the aircraft cannot physically fly beyond eight hours due to the ‘release to service’ on engine maintenance.
Costs of Land-Based versus Sea-Based Operations
Official government figures report the cost of Operation Ellamy to have been £320 million, although it is difficult to qualify separate fixed costs versus additional costs of the campaign. Written evidence for the Defence Select Committee calculates the cost to be far higher at £1.35 billion and estimates an equivalent sea-based air cost of £245 million.
MoD evidence seen in research for this paper estimates the cost of land-based air costs (at a distance of 600 miles) rising to four times that of carrier-based operations |
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