Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia orders troops to leave key Ukrainian city of Kherson

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...sses-in-donetsk

להלן ניתוח הסיבות וההשפעות:

• פגיעה מהותית בגשרים וקושי לוגיסטי מהותי בפרט בחורף. מודבר על כח רוסי איכותי לא מגוייסים מרחבי אסיה שניתן להקריב לחינם.
• פינוי האזרחים המאסיבי מלמד על אפשרות להשמדה מוחלטת של האיזור פוטין העביר מסר חד משמעי בהקשר זה למקרון - "כדי לנצח במלחמה גרעינית לא צריך להשמיד עיר גדולה" - כלומר לא קייב אלא חרסון?
• השיחות בין המעצמות התקיימו. ארה"ב החלה ללחוץ על אוקראינה בגלוי לנקוט בעמדה ריאלית לנוכח המצב. אוקראינה תלויה לגמרי בארה"ב ואירופה ומי כמונו יודע מהו "מחיר" התלות הזאת.
• המערב אוהב את מודל "שתי המדינות" ע"ע הקוריאות הניסיון בויאטנאם השיח לגבי מדינת ישראל, שורת מדינות באפריקה, גרמניה ז"ל וכו'. בהקשר זה אוקראינה המערבית והמזרחית נשמע לא רע.
• רוסיה מוכנה להתספק בחבלים שכבשה + מוצא לים במיריאפול, זלנסקי נחוש להילחם ולהחזיר לעצמו שטחים אלו. המערב מעוניין להגיע להסדר כל שהוא ולסיים את הסאגה - יותר ויותר מנהיגים אומרים זאת במפורש - בראשם ביידן ומקרון.
• שימוש רוסי בפצצה טקטית בחרסון (או בכל מקום אחר) יציב את המערב בפני דילמה מהותית: מצד אחד לא ניתן להשאיר ללא תגובה ובלתי אפשרי לנטוש את אוקראינה, ומנגד אין להם באמת רצון להיגרר לקרב הזה.

אוקראינה אינה ישראל משום בחינה שהיא וזלנסקי מתגלה כמנהיג נחוש שלא חת מפני איש. (הוא עשוי מחומר של מהפכנים שהובילו את מדינתם למלחמה כנגד כל הסיכויים). הסיכונים שהוא לוקח ללא תקדים ואף בעלי השפעה עולמית. זאת ועוד שתוצאת המלחמה ישפיעו ישירות על הזירה הפאציפית - סין מול טאייוואן.

עוד חודשיים 4 חודשי לחימה ורוסיה מפסידה במלחמה, ואתה מספר סיפורי סבתא על מלחמה גרעינית ולחץ.
הפחדש היחיד שיש למערב, זה מה יקרה לרוסיה אחרי הקרסה, וישנה קבוצת אנשים(אני מקווה שהם מיעוט), אשר מאמנים עדיף פוטין ורוסיה שבורה, ממשהו חדש שיקום שם במקום. מקווה (אפילו בשביל הרוסים עצמם), שימוטטו את ממשל פוטין עד הסוף.

לכשירגיש פוטין שהוא קרוב הסיכון למלחמה גרעינית יעלה.

ולגופו של ענין לא ניתן להתעלם מהאיומים המפורשים והבוטים שנשמעים מפיהם של פוטין ומדבדב.



ארה"ב לוחצת על אוקראינה להיכנס למו"מ: להלן ידיעה בהקשר זה.



אסף רוזנצוייג:
היועץ לביטחון לאומי של ארה"ב, ג'ייק סאליבן, דחק בזלנסקי לוותר על דרישותיו המקוריות, בהן לחימה על שחרור חצי האי קרים ואזורים נוספים שנכבשו בשנת 2014, ולהתחיל לגבש רשימת דרישות "ריאליות" לקראת שיחות המו"מ עם רוסיה.

לא ברור מאיפה אתה לוקח את המידע שלך... הרוסים קרסו לגמרי, עוד הפסד קריטי והכל קורס לחלוטין, לפי ניתוחים רבים מריאופל נופלת עד סוף השנה.(וזה באמת הסוף של הרוסים).

ציטוט:

אין סימנים על כך שרוסיה קרובה לקריסה, אבוי אם היו.

אבוי למי?
הרוסים חייבים הפסקת אש, והם ממש מתחננים לכזו בימים האחרונים. אם לפני שלושה חודשים היו מוכנים האוקראינים לסניגה של ה24.2, היום התנאים הם הברה יותר קשים לרוסים - נסיגה מכלל השטחים כולל דנבאס ולוהנסק. הרוסים הפסידו את המלחמה והם חייבים למזער נזקים(מזעור נזקים נכון להיום שווה השארת קרים). בעוד חצי שנה לכל היותר גם קרים לא ישאר.

רוסיה כבר לא רק מאיימת אלא גם פועלת בשטח. בסוף אוקטובר הותקפו מערכי התראה תת מימיים של נאט"ו. הם מבטיחים את יכולת החמקנות של הצוללות הגרעיניות על מנת לשמר יכולת מכה שניה. [זהו ההגיון היחיד של המהלכים הללו, ולא ניתן להתעלם מהם]. בפעם האחרונה שעשו זאת קרתה הפלישה בטווח הנראה לעין.

מדבדב ופוטין מאיימים קונקרטית ובפני מנהיגי אירופה (פוטין בשיחתו עם מקרון) בשימוש בנשק גרעיני. רוסיה הציבה גבולות עמומים בהקשר זה אך ברור שהם קיימים מבחינת הפיקוד הרוסי. לפיכך הנחת היסוד של גורמים רבים בעולם היא שאם המשטר הרוסי יחשוש מתבוסה אסטרטגית ו/או מקריסה טוטאלית של החזית ישנה אפשרות סבירה ביותר להפעלת נשק גרעיני.

היעוץ לביטחון לאומי וגורמים נוספים בארה"ב קוראים בגלוי לקיומו של מו"מ. אתה חושב שזה בגלל שהם אוהבים את רוסיה? בהקשר זה הניצחון הדמוקרטי בסנט והתיקו המסתמן בבית התחתון משרתים את אוקראינה. אך גם בממשל גורמים רבים שואפים לפיתרון שיעצור את הסיכון המטורף הזה.

פוטין מאיים ומקיים ואין כל מקום להתעלם מאיומיו - האיש חסר מעצורים.

העיכוב לא נובע מהססנות אלא מניסיון מחושב להגיע לפיתרון מדיני שימנע את האסקלציה - אם ייכשל הוא יפעל כפי שהוא חושב שנדרש. לי על כל פנים אין ספק בכך!

מחר גם צפון קוראה יארגנו לעצמם 1000 פצצות מימן ויאיימו על כולם, מחרותיים איראן.
אין מה להגיעה לשום סיכום עם הרוסים, את הרוסים יש להביס ללא תנאי, האפשרות היחידה של הרוסים להשאיר פנים כלשהם, זה לסיים את הלחימה מיידית, ולצאת מכל השטחים הכבושים.
במידה וזה לא יקרה, גם קרים לא חסין.

הבעיה הגדולה של ביידן - היא שהוא רמס את הקווים האדומים,
ואז טענות "פסיכופת" שלו - אינן אמינות.

כמו ילד שקופץ לו לאגם מלא תנינים.

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אחד פגע ביישוב בתוך שטח פולין
לפחות 2 הרוגים

לא 190 100, וזה הדבר היחיד שחדלי האישים הללו יכולים לעשות. צבא שלא נשאר ממנו דבר, חיילים שותים מים משלוליות, מתלבשים בנעלי גומי בחורף, תכף יגמרו גם הטלים(בכמויות מסחריות), וישאר רק הגרעין לאיים איתו - אין הבדל בין הבדיחה הרוסית לצפפון קוראיה.

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פולין נאטו וארה"ב - טיל אוקראיני טועה
אוקראינה זו תקיפה רוסית מחושבת.
בכירי נאט"ו זלנסקי משקר. זה הרסני יותר מטיל.

ובכן באמת קשה לדעת מי דובר אמת אך הנ"ל מוכיח דבר אחד: נאט"ו ארה"ב אירופה וכל שאר מעצמות הדמיקולו מפחדות פחד מוות מהאפשרות למלמחמה שעשויה להדרדר לעימות גרעיני.

משענת הקנה הרצוץ. שיעור מצוין לכל הנוגעים בדבר: אוקראינה טאייוואן וגם ישראל הקטנה. -

איש לא יעזור לך אל מול איום גרעיני - הרבה תמיכה מוראלית אך לא מעבר לכך.

הרוסים מנצלים היטב את החורף.

• מגייסים ומאמנים
• מוחקים את התשתיות האוקראיניות. בעיקר תשתית החשמל הפוגעת אנושות ביכולת הייצור ובכלכלה.
• מבצרים את קווי החזית ומתיישרים בקווים קלים יחסית להגנה.
• בונים יכולת התקפית בעומק השטח. בעיקר באמצעות מלט"ים וטילים זולים (ידע ותשתית איראנית בעיקר).
• רוסיה גם ממשיכה להפריח את איומיה הגרעיניים והפסד מהותי בחזית עשוי להביא לשימוש שכזה.

המלחמה רחוקה מסוים ובינתייים התשתית האוקראינית תמשיך לחטוף. נראה אם האוקראינים אכן יצליחו לפתוח באופנסיבה עם קפיאת האדמה בסוף ינואר.

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הלינק מעל מכיל מידע אודות המאגרים המלאים של מדינות אירופה. כולן צמצמו מאוד את הצריכה, הפעילו מקורות אנרגיה חלופיים (בעיקר גרעין ופחם אך גם אנרגיה מתחדשת מכל הסוגים). כולן מיבאות גז ממקורות חלופיים. ארה"ב כמובן נרתמה כמו גם כלכלת גרמניה לקח להם 4 חודשים לבנות מסוף חדש ומרכזי לקליטת גז נוזלי. אכן לממלכה האמוחדת (בריטניה) אין עתודות משמעותיות מנגד היא מעולם לא הייתה תלויה בגז הרוסי ומושפעת רק בעקיפין מעליית מחירי האנרגיה - סביר שהשפעה זו ממותנת בשל קיומם של חוזים ארוכי טווח.

רוסיה איבדה את הלקוח האירופי. אירופה לעולם לא תרשה לעצמה להיות תלויה בה יותר. איש במערב לא ישקיע בצנרת רוסית או בגז רוסי בכלל, והיא גזרה על עצמה תלות כלכלית וטכנולוגית (דרג - 5) בסינים או בהודים. הרוסים מצידם הודיעו על נכונות לחדש אספקה באמצעות צנרת קיימת...
החודשיים הקרובים הם שיא החורף וצריכת הגז. נראה שהאירופאיים נערכו היטב.
עוד הימור כושל של הטבח ממוסקבה

דוגמה עכשווית לפערים טכנולגיים: הקורונה מסיימת שנה רביעית המערב פיתח כמה חיסונים יעילים על פני שנה ויצא מהסיפור. הסינים ניסו להעתיק וכשלו החיסון שלהם בלתי יעיל! ניסו מדיניות אפס קורונה - ספגו נזקים כלכליים קולוסאליים וכשלו. מסיבות שונות נמנעו מרכש במערב (באמת לא מובן למה).כרגע מתבצעת הדבקה המונית וסין משלמת את מלוא המחיר. (המספרים הרשמיים בלתי אמינים לחלוטין ופשוט לא רלוונטיים הדיווחים מהשטח - המצונזרים למחצה - איומים).
סין מצייתת לסנקציות המערביות אל מול רוסיה - זה לא לחינם!

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לא נמסר בתוך כמה זמן.

הטקטיקה האמורה של ייצור כמות אדירה של כלים בלתי מאוישים שיציפו את מערכי ההגנה המערביים בהחלט מהווה אתגר ומזכירה את ההתמודדות של ישראל עם הטילים הבלתי מדויקים הזולים שמופנים לעבר ישראל.

כלי הטיס הללו מדויקים ולכן מהווים אתגר משמעותי יותר. טקטיקה זאת תופנה ללא ספק גם לעברנו.

רוסויה ממשיכה להוכיח כי לא ניתן להתעלם מיכולותיה הלוגיסטיות והאסטרטגיות.

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