במאמר שהתפרסם בכתב העת DEFENSE NEWS, יש התייחסויות מעניינות של מומחים העוסקים בהערכת השימוש בכטב"ם על ידי ישראל בעשורים הקרובים. (המאמר מזכיר מחקר מסוים הנערך עבור חיל האוויר, וזהו כלי התקשורת הראשון שמזכיר את המוחקר ועבודת המטה הנעשית בנושא).


מומלץ לקרוא (המאמר מובא ברשות העיתון והכתבת בישראל):

Israeli Experts Urge Slow, Steady Move to UCAVs
By BARBARA OPALL-ROME, TEL AVIV

Air power experts here are urging the Israel Air Force to move in the direction of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), but not to leap precipitously into a new era of robotic attack aircraft, as some have suggested.

Proposals to scrap Israel’s planned deployment of 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (JSFs) in favor of a UCAV fleet remain on the table, but only as a worst-case option as long as Israel’s status in the U.S.-led multinational fighter program remained uncertain.

But a U.S. decision to end Israel’s year-long exile from the JSF effort would do much to clear up uncertainties and residual U.S. sanctions prompted by concerns over Israeli defense trade with China. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz met in Washington Nov. 4, but the outcome of those talks were not know by press time.

Nevertheless, sources here said findings from an ongoing manned-versus-unmanned study — conducted on behalf of the Israel Air Force by the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Studies — are still relevant in terms of their ability to influence the quantity of F-35s ultimately deployed.

According to some estimates, Israeli strides in the development of technology and operational concepts associated with UCAVs could allow Israel to reduce its planned JSF procurement by some 20 percent. Nevertheless, most defense planners and air power experts here concur that an Israeli-unique version of the next-generation fighter should serve as the backbone of air operations through 2040 and beyond.

Eitan Ben-Eliahu, former Israel Air Force commander and a key participant in the Fisher study, said Israel’s first priority should be the removal of U.S. restrictions governing Israel’s participation in the JSF program. “We need to solve all the problems with the Americans and make that next-generation fighter our new center of gravity,” the retired major general said.

While unmanned combat aircraft offer certain distinct advantages, Ben-Eliahu said, a direct leap to a UCAV-dominated force would trigger a whole new set of problems, although he declined to elaborate.

“Some people may try to circumvent current [bilateral] difficulties by going directly to the next level while other people may want to take advantage of the situation and advance certain technologies and agendas,” Ben-Eliahu said. “But we need to resist calls for rash and high-risk action in favor of a more evolutionary embrace of the unmanned option.”

Yoram Ilan-Lipovsky, a retired Israel Air Force colonel who heads the Fisher Institute’s Space and UAV Center, declined to discuss specific findings of the group, which was tasked to determine the strategic cost effectiveness of manned versus unmanned aircraft.

“We’re putting together a long-range overall vision, which takes into account how much it costs to train a pilot, the operational benefits and limitations of manned aircraft, industrial implications and the political price a nation pays, for example, in the event that pilots and aircrews are taken hostage,” Ilan-Lipovsky said.

According to Ilan-Lipovsky, costs to train and maintain frontline pilots and aircrews could double the costs of manned platforms, while costs of preventing accidents also serve to elevate overall costs of attack aircraft. Moreover, physiological limitations of manned missions limit long-range operational options.

“It’s not practical to fly with a manned aircraft more than 24 hours … and then, of course, there is the tremendous political and emotional costs to be considered when pilots or aircrews fall behind enemy lines,” he said.

Despite the high costs, operational limitations and political risk associated with manned aircraft, Ilan-Lipovsky said Israel’s interests would be better served by an evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, move to UCAVs. “My personal opinion is that we need to be wary of revolutions. It could be irresponsible and risky to skip the JSF generation entirely,” he said.

Israeli Experts Urge Slow, Steady Move to UCAVs
By BARBARA OPALL-ROME, TEL AVIV

Air power experts here are urging the Israel Air Force to move in the direction of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), but not to leap precipitously into a new era of robotic attack aircraft, as some have suggested.

Proposals to scrap Israel’s planned deployment of 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (JSFs) in favor of a UCAV fleet remain on the table, but only as a worst-case option as long as Israel’s status in the U.S.-led multinational fighter program remained uncertain.

But a U.S. decision to end Israel’s year-long exile from the JSF effort would do much to clear up uncertainties and residual U.S. sanctions prompted by concerns over Israeli defense trade with China. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz met in Washington Nov. 4, but the outcome of those talks were not know by press time.

Nevertheless, sources here said findings from an ongoing manned-versus-unmanned study — conducted on behalf of the Israel Air Force by the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Studies — are still relevant in terms of their ability to influence the quantity of F-35s ultimately deployed.

According to some estimates, Israeli strides in the development of technology and operational concepts associated with UCAVs could allow Israel to reduce its planned JSF procurement by some 20 percent. Nevertheless, most defense planners and air power experts here concur that an Israeli-unique version of the next-generation fighter should serve as the backbone of air operations through 2040 and beyond.

Eitan Ben-Eliahu, former Israel Air Force commander and a key participant in the Fisher study, said Israel’s first priority should be the removal of U.S. restrictions governing Israel’s participation in the JSF program. “We need to solve all the problems with the Americans and make that next-generation fighter our new center of gravity,” the retired major general said.

While unmanned combat aircraft offer certain distinct advantages, Ben-Eliahu said, a direct leap to a UCAV-dominated force would trigger a whole new set of problems, although he declined to elaborate.

“Some people may try to circumvent current [bilateral] difficulties by going directly to the next level while other people may want to take advantage of the situation and advance certain technologies and agendas,” Ben-Eliahu said. “But we need to resist calls for rash and high-risk action in favor of a more evolutionary embrace of the unmanned option.”

Yoram Ilan-Lipovsky, a retired Israel Air Force colonel who heads the Fisher Institute’s Space and UAV Center, declined to discuss specific findings of the group, which was tasked to determine the strategic cost effectiveness of manned versus unmanned aircraft.

“We’re putting together a long-range overall vision, which takes into account how much it costs to train a pilot, the operational benefits and limitations of manned aircraft, industrial implications and the political price a nation pays, for example, in the event that pilots and aircrews are taken hostage,” Ilan-Lipovsky said.

According to Ilan-Lipovsky, costs to train and maintain frontline pilots and aircrews could double the costs of manned platforms, while costs of preventing accidents also serve to elevate overall costs of attack aircraft. Moreover, physiological limitations of manned missions limit long-range operational options.

“It’s not practical to fly with a manned aircraft more than 24 hours … and then, of course, there is the tremendous political and emotional costs to be considered when pilots or aircrews fall behind enemy lines,” he said.

Despite the high costs, operational limitations and political risk associated with manned aircraft, Ilan-Lipovsky said Israel’s interests would be better served by an evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, move to UCAVs. “My personal opinion is that we need to be wary of revolutions. It could be irresponsible and risky to skip the JSF generation entirely,” he said.[/QUOTE]

טל

זה בהחלט מעניין, חבל שאין פה קצת יותר מידע.

מכיוון שהצפי לגבי זמינותו של ה-F35 הוא ככל מעבר לשנת 2010 (והגעתו ארצה אם בכלל עשויה למשוך את העניין זמן רב אף יותר) אני דווקא הייתי שמח לראות הליכה לכיוון העצמאי של פיתוח חלופות בלתי מאוישות (לפחות חלקיות) עד אמצע העשור הבא.

מכיוון שדיון דומה במקצת הנוגע למסל"טים חמושים כבר היה פה ואני לא רוצה לחזור על חלק מהנקודות שכבר הוזכרו שם, אני רק רוצה לומר שוב כי ישנם אספקטים קרביים אשר מטוס בלתי מאוייש יוכל לשלוט בהם טוב לא פחות מטייס אנושי עד אמצע העשור הבא. באופן ספציפי יותר אני חוזר על הרעיון שלי שניתן לשלב בקלות יחסית מטוסים בלתי מאויישים במבנה הכולל מטוס מאויש כמוביל המחלק הוראות (כלליות) לקבוצה של מטוסים בלתי מאוישים.

אגב הJSF צפוי להחליף שורה של מטוסים בצבא האמריקני (F16, F18 ועוד מספר מטוסים אחרים) מה שפחות ברור לי הוא אילו מטוסים יחליף הJSF בחיל האויר שלנו (האם רק את הF16 או האם הוא מתוכנן להחליף גם את הF15C למשל?). אם התשובה היא חיובית זה לא בהכרח דבר חיובי - לפחות אם יש אמת במאמר הבא:
http://www.sci.fi/~fta/aviat-6b.htm

על פיו הF35 נחות באופן משמעותי (ביותר) מה-F22 אותו מייעד חיל האויר האמריקאי כמחליף לF15.

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