Recently, a political scientist Eugene Gershman, who emigrated to the U.S. from Odessa, published on its website an article about the political aspect of the oil shale of the revolution. Materials offer an interview with him: -
What relation, shale, Eugene, have to geopolitics?
- The policy is based on the economy. Today, the global oil and gas industry is a revolution. 10 years ago, American scientists and engineers have created a fundamentally new technologies in oil and gas from shale. Production costs are a barrel of oil is $ 30-40 and $ 50-60 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. With the development of it is still cheaper. Experts predict that within five years, the cost per barrel will drop to $ 5. Even today, shale gas accounts for 40% of their total production in the United States, and by 2020 will increase to 60%. The U.S. has already stopped imports. American companies are ready to export gas to Europe twice cheaper than the Russian.
- In which countries is shale?
- 70% of world reserves are in the blessed America. Second place with 9% owned by Russia. Third place may take Israel. In the Judean lowlands, 30 miles from Jerusalem, is the largest field "Shfela" - 250 billion barrels of oil. These resources are all explored oil fields of Saudi Arabia. Large deposits are also in the Negev desert. Total in Israel can be roughly 500 billion barrels. Until recently, the Israelis joked: "Moses led the Jews forty years in the wilderness to find a place where there is no oil." In the coming years, Israel will not only ensure their own needs, but also become a major exporter of hydrocarbons.
- Exporters of oil and gas oil used as a political weapon. They "held by the throat," the West, threatening the oil embargo. What will change as a result of the oil shale of the revolution?
- Their influence is close to an end. Even today, gas prices have fallen by half. The development of shale gas in Europe, China and many other countries will reduce the price to $ 50 per thousand cubic meters. Within a few years in many countries, shale oil flow itself. By 2017, its price will fall to $ 20 per barrel. OPEC will lose its value and cease to exist, and the income of Arab sheiks and imams of Iran will be reduced by ten times. They are no longer able to support their economies. At this point they will not stand up to sharia worldwide. They will no longer fund the global jihad and global terrorism, end its existence.
- Reduction of oil prices in the 1980s destroyed the Soviet Union and destroy the world socialist camp. This led to war in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Balkans. What will happen this time?
- According to my forecast drop in hydrocarbon prices would entail in the oil countries, economic and political crises, chaos and riots. Encounter separatist war ... In some countries can be formed totalitarian, clerical and chauvinist regimes. These modes and even some gang seize heavy weapons may have weapons of mass destruction. Therefore, the international community should prepare for the prevention of this grave situation and to minimize the damage from the crisis. Before the fall of prices in these countries should be formed by civilian institutions, which at the time of the collapse of authoritarian regimes are the pillars of the new political systems.
wprr.ru